COLLECTOR GUIDE · RIP & SHIP EDITORIAL
Expected Value of Mystery Boxes
Why headline prize values do not tell you the real cost.
Expected value
Multiply each outcome’s probability by its realizable cash value, sum the outcomes, then subtract the box price, delivery charges and selling fees.
Realizable value
Advertised MSRP may differ sharply from what a buyer will pay for a card, sneaker or gadget. Condition and liquidity affect the result.
Limitations
Published odds may be incomplete, market prices fluctuate and shipping eligibility can make some outcomes harder to realize. Expected value is not a prediction of your result.